Election Modeling Talk through TDI

This talk may be of interest to some COPS members. https://tdai.osu.edu/events/2018/11/27/11021/

Title: “Forecasting U.S. elections using compartmental models of infection”

Authors: Alexandria Volkening (MBI, Ohio State University), Daniel F. Linder (Augusta University), Mason A. Porter (University of California, Los Angeles), and Grzegorz A. Rempala (Ohio State University)

Abstract: U.S. election prediction involves polling likely voters, making assumptions about voter turnout, and accounting for various features such as state demographics and voting history. While political elections in the United States are decided at the state level, errors in forecasting are correlated between states. With the goal of shedding light on the forecasting process and exploring how states influence each other, we develop a framework for forecasting elections in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. Through a simple approach that borrows ideas from epidemiology, we show how to combine a compartmental model with public polling data from HuffPost and RealClearPolitics to forecast gubernatorial, senatorial, and presidential elections at the state level. Our results for the 2012 and 2016 U.S. races are largely in agreement with those of popular pollsters, and we use our new model to explore how subjective choices about uncertainty impact results. We conclude by comparing our forecasts for the senatorial and gubernatorial races in the U.S. midterm elections of November 6, 2018, with those of popular pollsters.

“Can We All Just Get Along?” A Program of Research Directed Towards Overcoming Difference and Improving Race Relations in America

Just a reminder that our first COPS meeting will be held today in room 3116 from 3:00-4:00pm. Osei Appiah and I will be discussing our latest research on race and politics (with collaborators including Olivia Bullock, Katy Coduto, Jacob Long, and Dr. Amy Nathanson) and will be discussing future research opportunities for interested students!

See you this afternoon!

Call for Papers -- relevant for COPS folks?

CALL FOR PAPERS: CELEBRITIES AND POLITICS

Celebrity and fame permeate political life. In the United States and internationally, well-known celebrities advocate for humanitarian causes and even run for political office; elected officials are often renowned for their personal style and social media presence; and the multi-national media and consumer products industries use famous people to increase profits and shape political discourse (to name just some examples). Given that the study of politics is centrally concerned with power, this Special Section aims to examine the power and politics of "celebrity." We therefore invite scholars to submit theoretical and empirical pieces that build on existing celebrity/celebrities and politics research or break new ground to explore the power of "celebrity" and interrogate the forces that produce and maintain it.

The list of possible paper topics for this Special Section might include, but is not limited to:
-     Theorizing the link between fame and political discourse and processes
-     The "celebritization" of the political sphere in historical perspective
-     The politics of celebrity in the sports and/or entertainment industries
-     Celebrities' impact on public opinion and voting behavior
-     Social movements and the mobilization of celebrity/celebrities
-     Methodological approaches to/challenges for celebrity research in political science

Editorial Information
Michael Bernhard, Editor-in-Chief
Daniel I. O'Neill, Associate Editor
and
Samantha Majic, Guest Editor

Submission Deadline: May 15th, 2018

Questions
See below for more information. Please direct additional questions about this Call for Papers to our editorial staff at perspectives@apsanet.org.

Fake news

New study of fake news on Twitter. Discuss...  https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/03/largest-study-ever-fake-news-mit-twitter/555104/?utm_source=atlfb

WaPo story reports on Nisbet and colleagues findings re: fake news and 2016 election

Check out the Washington Post's story on research by Erik Nisbet (and OSU Political Science Emeritus Professors Beck and Gunther) from the Comparative National Elections Project regarding the impact of fake news on the 2016 U.S. presidential election outcome. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/04/03/a-new-study-suggests-fake-news-might-have-won-donald-trump-the-2016-election/?utm_term=.ccc18fb76358

COPS Tuesday April 3rd: Flagging Misinformation on Facebook

This week Shannon Poulsen and Kelly Garrett will be seeking feedback on their project feedback on flagging misinformation on Facebook. Shannon will present on this project, which is currently in data collection. Please come and offer your feedback!

Visiting Professors Bert Bakker & Gijs Schumacher (University of Amsterdam) Host Informal Research Talk April 2

Mark your calendar for April 2, as Bert Bakker & Gijs Schumacher from University of Amsterdam will be visiting OSU. Bert and Gijs work on various projects that assess the role of psychophysiological responses to political communication (particularly as related to emotion). They recently received a large ERC Grant and and, as part of this grant, are visiting several US Universities to network with likeminded colleagues.

Accordingly, Bert and Gijs would like to share some of the things they are working on, but to also hear about what it is that we are working on. This will be a pretty informal meeting which will take place on Monday, April 2 from 10-11am (location TBD). That will save time for individual discussions from 11am-12pm (if they are warranted). Light refreshments, including coffee, will be provided.

RSVP by March 26 here: https://osu.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_d5d56xPsAMccYKN. 

Bert and Gijs are also hiring a postdoc, which may be of interest to students on the market. Here is the job call: https://www.uva.nl/en/content/vacancies/2018/01/18-037-postdoctoral-researcher-in-the-effects-of-emotional-political-communication.html?m

See you there!

COPS on Tuesday: LaTeX

Join us tomorrow for Kyle Davis's workshop on LaTeX. LaTeX is a typesetting system used in some fields -- especially those heavy on statistical formuals -- for preparing research papers. From Kyle: "The workshop won't go step-by-step on how to write in LaTeX, but rather give resources and a sales-pitch for integrating some LaTeX into our workflow. This will then be broadened out to talk about workflow in academia. One place I have stored resources on LaTeX is on Github: 

https://github.com/KyleDavisGithub/LaTeX-Templates "

COPS in Prague

Congratulations to all the COPS members whose papers were accepted for presentation at the 2018 meeting of the International Communication Association (ICA) in Prague, Czech Republic. The overall acceptance rate for ICA was about 37%, so these accepted papers are an important accomplishment. Below I've posted all of the papers by COPS members in the Pol Comm division or that are otherwise explicitly related to political communication, but I know some of our members have also had papers accepted in other divisions and/or on non-political topics. (And, if I haven't listed your paper, drop me a note and I'll update this post.) Congrats to all, and see you in Prague in late May!

*Names in red are current OSU School of Communication graduate students.

Bond, R. M., & Sweitzer, M. D. (2018, May). Political homophily in a large-scale online communication network. Paper presented to the Political Communication division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Coronel, J. C., &; Poulsen, S. (2018, May). [Title redacted.] Paper presented to the Political Communication division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Dixon, G. & Hubner, A. (2018, May). Neutralizing political worldviews by communicating scientific agreement: A thought-listing study. Paper presented to the Environmental Communication division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Eveland, W. P., Jr., & Nathanson, A. I. (2018, May). The 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign as a context for parents to talk to their children about racism. Paper presented to the Political Communication division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Long, J.A., Jeong, M., & Lavis, S.M. (2018, May). Does political entertainment produce efficacious, engaged citizens? A mediation analysis using three-wave panel data. Paper accepted for presentation to the Political Communication division at the 2018 Annual Conference of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Luong, K. N., Garrett, R. K., & Slater, M. D. (2018). Interpretative framing: A schema-dependent approach. Paper presented at the Political Communication division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Moore, R.M., Coronel, J. C., & Poulsen, S. (2018, May). Remembering political events together: Experimental evidence from the collaborative remembering paradigm. Paper presented to the Political Communication division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Nathanson, A. I., & Eveland, W. P., Jr. (2018, May). Parental mediation during the U.S. 2016 presidential election campaign. Paper presented to the Children and Media division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Nisbet, E. C., Garrett, R. K., Beck, P. A., & Gunther, R. (2018). Disinformation and voting: Evidence from the 2016 presidential election. Paper presented at the Political Communication division of the International Communication Association, Prague, Czech Republic.

Socialization to Conferences for Political Communication

Next Tuesday's COPS meeting (12-1pm on Jan. 16th in 3136 Derby Hall) will be a discussion of academic and professional conferences and their divisions from the perspective of scholars in political communication. We'll talk both Communication and Political Science conferences, submission deadlines and formats (paper vs. abstract), divisions (when relevant), acceptance rates, and more. We'll talk not only about choosing a conference, but also what it's like and what to do when you're there. I expect that there will be differences in opinion about the relative value of various conferences, and the best strategies for submission and participation. So, come with questions and those of us with experience will spend an hour giving you an insiders view of conferences. Then, you can draw your own conclusions!

Spring Meeting Schedule

Come join the Communication Opinion and Political Science lab this spring!

Revived last fall, our lab shares research and discusses current topics in the field of political communication research.

Meetings will be held every other Tuesday at 12:00pm. All meetings will be in Derby Hall 3136 except for February 13th, where the meeting will be in Derby Hall 3150.

• January 16
• January 30
• February 13 (in Derby Hall 3150)
• February 27
• March 6 (note that moves to two weeks in a row across Feb/Mar because of OSU spring break)
• March 20 
• April 3 
• April 17

The subject and content of each meeting date will be shared as the semester develops.

We look forward to seeing everyone, new and old!